风云三号D星微波湿度计在台风“摩羯”预报中的效果解析

    Analysis of the Effect of the Fengyun-3D Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS-II) Data Assimilation on Typhoon “YAGI” Forecast

    • 2411号台风“摩羯”于2024年9月登陆中国东南沿海地区, 风云三号D星(FY-3D)微波湿度计(MWHS-II)成功监测到该台风. 本研究在天气研究与预报模式数据同化系统(Weather Research and Forecasting model Data Assimilation system, WRFDA)中构建了晴空条件下FY-3D MWHS-II资料三维变分同化框架, 通过设置118 GHz, 183 GHz单频段以及双频段联合同化及预报试验方案, 系统评估了MWHS-II资料同化对台风“摩羯”的强度、路径及降水预报效果. 试验表明, 同化FY-3D MWHS-II资料有效提升了分析场质量, 对台风强度、路径和降水的预报也产生了积极影响. 台风预报方面, 同化118 GHz和183 GHz通道对台风路径预报分别改进了17.18%和13.39%, 洋面区域的183 GHz同化更使得路径预报改进率达到14.59%; 降水预报方面, MWHS-II资料同化显著提升初期24 h内中小雨量级(<25 mm)预报命中率, 其中118 GHz通道对强降水(>50 mm)预报表现出独特优势; 183 GHz通道的改进效应在24 h后逐步显现, 而双频段联合同化方案展现出综合优势, 各量级降水的降水分数技能得分(Fractions Skill Scores, FSS)相比控制试验提升显著. FY-3D MWHS-II的118 GHz和183 GHz频段在不同预报要素上的差异化改进效果, 突显了FY-3D MWHS-II资料在区域台风数值预报中的独特应用价值及应用潜力.

       

      Abstract: The Fengyun-3D satellite (FY-3D) Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS-II) successfully monitored the Typhoon “YAGI” (2411). In this paper, a three-dimensional variational assimilation framework of FY-3D MWHS-II data in clear sky is constructed in WRFDA. By setting up a single-band and dual-band joint assimilation and prediction experiment scheme of 118 GHz and 183 GHz, the microwave data assimilation and the forecast effect on the intensity, path and precipitation of Typhoon “YAGI” are systematically evaluated. The experiment shows that the assimilation of FY-3D MWHS-II data effectively improves the quality of the analysis field, and also has a positive impact on the forecast of typhoon intensity, track and precipitation. For the typhoon forecast, the assimilation of 118 GHz and 183 GHz channels improved the typhoon path forecast by 17.18% and 13.39% respectively, and the assimilation of 183 GHz in the ocean area made the path forecast improve by 14.59%. For the precipitation forecast, the assimilation of MWHS-II data significantly improves the hit rate of medium and small rainfall levels (< 25 mm) in the initial 24 hours, among which the 118GHz channel has a unique advantage in forecasting heavy rainfall (> 50 mm); The improvement effect of 183 GHz channel gradually appeared after 24 hours, while the dual-band joint scheme showed comprehensive advantages, and the FSS score of precipitation in each magnitude was significantly improved compared with the control experiment. The differential improvement effect of FY-3D MWHS-II’s 118 GHz and 183 GHz frequency bands on different forecast elements highlights the unique application value and potential of FY-3 MWHS-II data in regional typhoon numerical forecast.

       

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