基于LSTM Spatio-temporal Transformer的电离层TEC预测模型

    Ionospheric TEC Prediction Model Based on LSTM Spatio-temporal Transformer

    • 电离层总电子含量(TEC)是研究电离层时空变化的重要参数. 本文提出一种结合时空Transformer (STT)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM), 并引入时空注意力机制的电离层TEC组合预测模型(LSTM-STT). 利用2000-2023年国际GNSS服务欧洲定轨中心(CODE)提供的中国及其周边地区的TEC数据, 时间范围覆盖8766 d, 采用滑动窗口方法对数据进行处理, 模型以前48 h的TEC数据以及辅助参数作为输入, 用于预测后24 h的TEC数据, 据此构建了8764个样本. 为验证模型性能, 分别在2018年(太阳活动低年)和2023年(太阳活动高年)开展实验进行预测分析. 研究结果表明, 模型在2018年测试集上全部样本的均方根误差(RMSE)均值为1.3981 TECU, 相对精度均值为90.2524%; 在2023年测试集上全部样本的RMSE均值为4.6262 TECU, 相对精度均值为89.9208%, 说明模型在不同太阳活动状态下均表现出良好的预测性能.

       

      Abstract: The ionosphere is a major source of error for satellite navigation, communication, and other applications, and the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere is an important parameter for studying the temporal and spatial variations of the ionosphere, and it is extremely important to accurately predict the ionospheric TEC under different space weather conditions. Existing prediction models, when using auxiliary parameters such as solar activity and geomagnetic activity to improve the performance of ionospheric TEC prediction models, treat the auxiliary parameters as global covariates, ignoring the fact that the auxiliary parameters, although having the same value at each location, have different effects on the ionospheric TEC. To solve this problem, a combined ionospheric TEC prediction model (LSTM-STT) is proposed in this paper, which combines the Space-Time Transformer (STT) with the Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and introduces the space-time attention mechanism. The model adopts the TEC data of China and its surrounding areas from 2000 to 2023 provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) of the International GNSS Service organization (IGS), with a time range of 8766 days, and the data are processed by the sliding window method, and the model takes the TEC data of the first 48 hours and the auxiliary parameters as inputs, and the TEC data of the last 24 hours after the prediction are constructed with 8764 samples. A total of 8764 samples were constructed. To verify the performance of the model, experimental prediction analyses were conducted in 2018 (a low solar activity year) and 2023 (a high solar activity year). The results show that the model has an average root mean square error of 1.3981 TECU and an average relative accuracy of 90.2524% on the 2018 test set, and an average root mean square error of 4.6262 TECU and an average relative accuracy of 89.9208% on the 2023 test set, which indicates that the model has good prediction performance.

       

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